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Mexico’s Central Bank Intervenes to Halt Peso

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Mexico’s Central Bank Intervenes to Halt Peso Slide

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Mexico’s central bank is buying pesos in the foreign-exchange market after the currency plunged to a record low today, the bank’s press office said.

A joint central bank and Finance Ministry committee decided Banco de Mexico would “inject liquidity,” according to an e- mail sent by the central bank’s press office. The intervention is an “extraordinary” measure beyond the bank’s normal offer to buy 0 million worth of pesos a day, the press office said.

The central bank stepped into the market after the peso tumbled to a record for a fourth day. Today’s intervention adds to the .6 billion of foreign reserves that central bank Governor Guillermo Ortiz has spent to prop up the peso since the global financial crisis sent it tumbling in October.

“They have to be aggressive, they have to do it on a number of occasions and use larger amounts” to support the peso, said Francisco Diez, director of foreign-exchange trading at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Mexico’s peso rose 0.9 percent to 14.4396 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. New York time, compared to 14.5708 yesterday. It had slumped as much as 0.9 percent earlier to 14.7059, a record low.

‘Learned How to Play’

The peso has weakened 32 percent against the dollar over the past six months, the second-worst performance among the world’s major currencies after Brazil’s real, on concern the economy will sink into recession as demand in the U.S. falters for Mexican exports.

Mexico’s economy will shrink 1.16 percent this year, according to the average estimate of 31 economists in a monthly central bank survey published yesterday. Mexico’s economy last contracted for the full year in 2001, when it shrank 1.6 percent.

Banco de Mexico bought pesos directly from banks today, the first time it intervened in the foreign-exchange market without using an auction system since 1998, said Gabriel Casillas, an UBS AG economist in Mexico City.

“The market learned how to play” the daily auction system, said Maya Hernandez, a currency analyst with HSBC Holdings Plc in New York. “It wasn’t having any impact at all.”

Mexico’s central bank sold a record .4 billion in the currency market on Oct. 10 as it stepped up its bid to quell the rout that threatened to bankrupt companies.

Controladora Comercial Mexicana SAB, Mexico’s third-largest supermarket chain, has filed for bankruptcy protection at least three times since October, saying it had liabilities of .1 billion from wrong-way bets on the currency. Cemex SAB’s share price has plunged 36 percent since the end of September on concern the peso’s weakness will hurt its ability to service its dollar debt.

Inflation Outlook

Ortiz is trying to shore up the peso in a bid to rein in inflation, said Diez. Ortiz said last week in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, with Televisa television network that he’s concerned the weaker peso is fueling inflation. Annual inflation climbed to a seven-year high of 6.5 percent in December.

Grupo Bimbo SAB’s .4 billion purchase of George Weston Ltd.’s U.S. operations on Jan. 22 also has contributed to the peso’s decline because the company sold pesos for dollars to complete the transaction, Casillas said.

Local pension funds also sold pesos for dollars to buy some of the billion of 10-year notes that state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos sold Jan. 27, he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday extended a billion foreign-currency swap line agreement with Mexico by six months thorough Oct. 30, citing “continuing substantial strains in many financial markets.”

‘Line in the Sand’

Mexico won’t follow Russia’s example of trying to maintain the currency at a specific level in the face of overwhelming market skepticism, said Win Thin, senior foreign exchange strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York.

Russia “bungled by trying to draw a line in the sand,” Thin said “Emerging market currencies won’t see any relief till crisis is past.”

Russia’s central bank expanded its trading range for the ruble 20 times since mid-November before policy makers switched on Jan. 22 to let “market” forces help determine the exchange rate within a widened limit. The central bank drained more a third of its foreign-currency reserves, the world’s third largest, since August to stem the ruble’s 34 percent slide against the dollar.

Mexican policy makers aren’t “defending any particular level, but just trying to prevent things getting out of hand,” Thin said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Valerie Rota in Mexico City at vrota1@bloomberg.net; Hugh Collins in Mexico City at hcollins8@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 4, 2009 17:27 EST

Elisabet Kopelman

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Strategist fixed income/foreign exchange, Trading Strategy, SEB